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Jason Pontin is the Editor in Chief and Publisher of Technology Review.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The Geological Strata of Things
Old technologies seldom die; they get upgraded.
Mark Shuttleworth, a South African Internet tycoon who paid tens of
millions of dollars to go to the International Space Station aboard a
Russian Soyuz craft, recounts his arrival in space--blinking,
wondering, and weightless after the fire, shaking, and acceleration of
liftoff--in Adam Fisher's oral history of space tourism ("'Very Stunning, Very Space, and Very Cool'"):
The thing I remember as being quite striking was this
collection of very domestic sounds that kicks in after the main-engine
cutoff. Mechanical sounds, like the air circulation and the
conditioning, and then bits and pieces are kind of kicking in. You've
got alarm clocks and fans, and you've got a big device called the
"globus." It's a ball--your map, basically--that turns, and it starts
going tick, tick, tick, like a cuckoo clock. You've just gone through
this extraordinary experience of getting into space, and then suddenly
it's like waking up inside the workshop of an old Swiss clockmaker or
something. So it's this amazing contrast between what you might
expect--which should involve special effects and background music--and
the very mechanical physical reality of it.
Thus, even the most transcendental of real, human experiences (which Saul Bellow, in Mr. Sammler's Planet,
evoked, wonderfully: "To blow this great blue, white, green planet or
to be blown from it") occurs amid the most mundane technology.
That technology can be very old. The space tourist Charles Simonyi,
a former Microsoft executive responsible for Word and Excel, whom we
profiled two years ago ("Anything You Can Do, I Can Do Meta,"
January/February 2007), describes the optical sight on the Soyuz: "It's
like a very old-fashioned--I don't know what it is. There is nothing,
no items like that anymore. ... That instrument could have been
constructed in the 19th century."
Famously, the Russian space program employs a brutalist approach:
its engineers use the crudest, oldest technology that works. (Since the
first Soyuz flew in 1966, only those parts that have failed or are
obviously obsolete have been redesigned.) But the technology aboard the
space station, much of which was constructed by the U.S. and European
space agencies as well as the Russian, is only a little shinier.
Simonyi says, "The space station is so messy. Words don't do justice.
It's like going into the messiest hardware store you have ever seen."
Because they are professional futurists, technologists like to
contemplate new, bright, and disruptive technologies. Often, by a
process of substitution, they talk about the newest iterations of
things as if they were the only things people actually use. But our
spaceships disclose a universal truth: old technologies are seldom
abandoned, and only when they are intolerably inconvenient. (The former
financial analyst Pip Coburn calls the moment when a "perceived crisis"
is worse than the "perceived pain of adoption" of a new technology the
"Change Function"; see "Who's Sorry Now?",
May/June 2006.) Mainly, however, old technologies accumulate like
geological strata, changing under the pressure of new circumstances.
The writer Robert X. Cringely has succinctly expressed this idea in
one of his "laws of computing": "Old software never dies; it just gets
upgraded." In "Parallel Universe",
Cringely explains how multicore computing--the use of many
microprocessors on a microchip--can multiply processing power without
increasing the heat associated with ever-greater miniaturization.
Cringely writes that in order to solve some of the problems of
parallelism (or how software is torn apart so that a process can be run
in parallel on hundreds of processors), Intel has recalled to service
"some graybeards of 1980s supercomputing." For these graybeards,
parallelism never disappeared. Now, in order to preserve Moore's Law,
we will use technologies first developed to build nuclear bombs during
the Cold War.
Or consider the U.S. electrical grid. In our cover story, "Lifeline for Renewable Power",
our chief correspondent, David Talbot, writes, "A patchwork system has
developed. ... But while its size and complexity have grown immensely,
the grid's basic structure has changed little since Thomas Edison
switched on a distribution system serving 59 customers in lower
Manhattan in 1882." Talbot shows that the old grid, constructed to
transmit the predictable flow of electricity from the burning of fossil
fuels, must be upgraded if it is to accommodate more-variable,
renewable energy sources like wind and solar power.
As much as they are a deepening coastal shelf beneath our
technological civilization, old technologies also live in each of us.
Biologically, we are their creatures. Exploring how archaeogenetics,
the application of genetic analysis to the study of prehistory, might
explain the puzzle of how we came to be highly civilized creatures (see "Our Past Within Us"),
Mark Williams argues that we evolved through our technology. "Humankind
invented agriculture, started eating different foods, and began
dwelling in cities; populations expanded, allowing large numbers of
mutations. Natural selection promoted the spread of beneficial
variations." Among those traits selected, Williams suggests, were those
that allowed us, eventually, to build spacecraft and space stations.
But write to me and tell me what you think at
jason.pontin@technologyreview.com.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Dear Mr. President
Like snowflakes upon a sea, and as little regarded, are letters to a new president.
Frustrated former presidents, fretfully retired statesmen, and
senators ambitious to sit in your cabinet want you to enjoy their
wisdom. Ordinary citizens take to their keyboards, as befits a
democracy. Captains of industry, those proud alumni of the Polytechnic
of Life, are determined to level with you. Even
intellectuals--scientists, economists, and, Someone forgive us,
magazine editors--feel the solemn duty to buttonhole you about what you
must do in the first months of your administration.
Wired magazine devoted its October issue to "a Smart List of 15
Wired people with big ideas about how to fix the things that need
fixing." More selectively, we have asked three éminences of science and
technology to advise you. (Letters from Ernest Moniz, the director of the MIT Energy Initiative; John Halamka, the chief information officer of Harvard Medical School; and Charles Vest, MIT president emeritus.) All try to make action urgent and its nature clear.
As will I. Whoever you are, you will have pressing demands upon your
attention. As I write in mid-October, a burst financial bubble appears
to be leading to a global crisis of liquidity. You must fight two
protracted wars. The very weather frightens. And at home and abroad
there is a general malaise about the American project: to many, the
United States, which Ronald Reagan, echoing Lincoln, often called "the
last, best hope of man on earth," seems to have become one of the
ordinary nations.
The promotion of science and technology must feel very far from your
priorities. But encouraging America's scientists and technologists is
essential to the well-being of your fellow citizens and (insofar as the
United States has been the world's wellspring of research and
development) of everyone alive.
It was so before. In the 20th century, U.S. achievement in science,
engineering, and medicine "protected our nation's security, fueled most
of our economic growth, and nearly doubled our life span," Chuck Vest
writes. "It sent us to the moon, fed the planet, brought world events
into our living rooms, established instant worldwide communications,
gave rise to ubiquitous new forms of art and entertainment, uncovered
the workings of our natural world, and gave us freedom of travel by
air, sea, and land."
Science and technology may astonish the 21st century, and they can
help solve many of the problems you face; but they will flourish only
if the federal government funds long-term discovery research. Venture
capitalists and entrepreneurs will develop the most commercial
discoveries; but the discoveries are the fruit of research for which
there is no sure application.
Your predecessor hardly cared for such stuff. Over the last eight
years, most federal funding of research was reduced or maintained at
the same level (and therefore declined after inflation). Only one area
of research really prospered: science and technology with applications
in security and defense. Generally, U.S science and technology is
suffering.
Consider, for example, research into alternative energy. In
testimony before the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and
Global Warming in September, MIT's president, Susan Hockfield, told
legislators that in 1980, 10 percent of federal research dollars went
to energy. In 2006, she said, it was less than 3 percent: between $2.4
and $3.4 billion, or less than half the annual R&D budget of the
largest North American pharmaceutical company. Hockfield called for
Congress to begin by tripling funding for energy research.
You should champion such increases. In the cover story of this issue (see "Sun + Water = Fuel"),
Kevin Bullis shows why. He describes a catalyst developed by Daniel
Nocera, a professor of chemistry at MIT, that generates oxygen from
water, much as plants do during photosynthesis. Bullis writes, "The
reaction is the first and most difficult step in splitting water to
make hydrogen gas. And that advance, Nocera believes, will help
surmount one of the main obstacles preventing solar power from becoming
a dominant source of electricity: there's no cost-effective way to
store the energy collected by solar panels."
This is a tremendous advance: if artificial photosynthesis works at
a larger scale, we have clean power. Nocera's current research is part
of a $21.5 million program, funded by the National Science Foundation,
that will continue until August 2013. But Nocera has been working on
artificial photosynthesis since the early 1980s, and it will take
another decade to commercialize his work. If we judge by recent
emerging energy technologies, that commercialization will demand
hundreds of millions of dollars more. Until venture capitalists have
been convinced of the technology's promise (and potentially for longer,
if the financial markets cannot offer an exit strategy to justify VCs'
investment), much of that money must come from the federal government.
Mr. President, please work with Congress to increase research
funding. Science and technology can expand human possibilities, but
only when they are themselves expansive.
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