Old technologies seldom die; they get upgraded.
Mark Shuttleworth, a South African Internet tycoon who paid tens of
millions of dollars to go to the International Space Station aboard a
Russian Soyuz craft, recounts his arrival in space--blinking,
wondering, and weightless after the fire, shaking, and acceleration of
liftoff--in Adam Fisher's oral history of space tourism ("'Very Stunning, Very Space, and Very Cool'"):
The thing I remember as being quite striking was this
collection of very domestic sounds that kicks in after the main-engine
cutoff. Mechanical sounds, like the air circulation and the
conditioning, and then bits and pieces are kind of kicking in. You've
got alarm clocks and fans, and you've got a big device called the
"globus." It's a ball--your map, basically--that turns, and it starts
going tick, tick, tick, like a cuckoo clock. You've just gone through
this extraordinary experience of getting into space, and then suddenly
it's like waking up inside the workshop of an old Swiss clockmaker or
something. So it's this amazing contrast between what you might
expect--which should involve special effects and background music--and
the very mechanical physical reality of it.
Thus, even the most transcendental of real, human experiences (which Saul Bellow, in Mr. Sammler's Planet,
evoked, wonderfully: "To blow this great blue, white, green planet or
to be blown from it") occurs amid the most mundane technology.
That technology can be very old. The space tourist Charles Simonyi,
a former Microsoft executive responsible for Word and Excel, whom we
profiled two years ago ("Anything You Can Do, I Can Do Meta,"
January/February 2007), describes the optical sight on the Soyuz: "It's
like a very old-fashioned--I don't know what it is. There is nothing,
no items like that anymore. ... That instrument could have been
constructed in the 19th century."
Famously, the Russian space program employs a brutalist approach:
its engineers use the crudest, oldest technology that works. (Since the
first Soyuz flew in 1966, only those parts that have failed or are
obviously obsolete have been redesigned.) But the technology aboard the
space station, much of which was constructed by the U.S. and European
space agencies as well as the Russian, is only a little shinier.
Simonyi says, "The space station is so messy. Words don't do justice.
It's like going into the messiest hardware store you have ever seen."
Because they are professional futurists, technologists like to
contemplate new, bright, and disruptive technologies. Often, by a
process of substitution, they talk about the newest iterations of
things as if they were the only things people actually use. But our
spaceships disclose a universal truth: old technologies are seldom
abandoned, and only when they are intolerably inconvenient. (The former
financial analyst Pip Coburn calls the moment when a "perceived crisis"
is worse than the "perceived pain of adoption" of a new technology the
"Change Function"; see "Who's Sorry Now?",
May/June 2006.) Mainly, however, old technologies accumulate like
geological strata, changing under the pressure of new circumstances.
The writer Robert X. Cringely has succinctly expressed this idea in
one of his "laws of computing": "Old software never dies; it just gets
upgraded." In "Parallel Universe",
Cringely explains how multicore computing--the use of many
microprocessors on a microchip--can multiply processing power without
increasing the heat associated with ever-greater miniaturization.
Cringely writes that in order to solve some of the problems of
parallelism (or how software is torn apart so that a process can be run
in parallel on hundreds of processors), Intel has recalled to service
"some graybeards of 1980s supercomputing." For these graybeards,
parallelism never disappeared. Now, in order to preserve Moore's Law,
we will use technologies first developed to build nuclear bombs during
the Cold War.
Or consider the U.S. electrical grid. In our cover story, "Lifeline for Renewable Power",
our chief correspondent, David Talbot, writes, "A patchwork system has
developed. ... But while its size and complexity have grown immensely,
the grid's basic structure has changed little since Thomas Edison
switched on a distribution system serving 59 customers in lower
Manhattan in 1882." Talbot shows that the old grid, constructed to
transmit the predictable flow of electricity from the burning of fossil
fuels, must be upgraded if it is to accommodate more-variable,
renewable energy sources like wind and solar power.
As much as they are a deepening coastal shelf beneath our
technological civilization, old technologies also live in each of us.
Biologically, we are their creatures. Exploring how archaeogenetics,
the application of genetic analysis to the study of prehistory, might
explain the puzzle of how we came to be highly civilized creatures (see "Our Past Within Us"),
Mark Williams argues that we evolved through our technology. "Humankind
invented agriculture, started eating different foods, and began
dwelling in cities; populations expanded, allowing large numbers of
mutations. Natural selection promoted the spread of beneficial
variations." Among those traits selected, Williams suggests, were those
that allowed us, eventually, to build spacecraft and space stations.
But write to me and tell me what you think at
jason.pontin@technologyreview.com.