Why we shouldn't get excited by the latest hydrogen cars.
Would you buy a car that costs 10 times as much as a hybrid
gasoline-electric, like the Prius? What if I told you it had half the range of the
hybrid? What if I told you most cities didn't have a single hydrogen fueling
station? Not interested yet? This should be the deal closer: what if I told you
it wouldn't have lower greenhouse-gas emissions than the hybrid?
Other than the traditional media, which is as distracted by
shiny new objects as my 16-month-old daughter, nobody should get terribly
excited when a car company rolls out its wildly impractical next-generation
hydrogen car. Too many miracles are required for it to be a marketplace winner.
Take Honda's new FCX Clarity. As the
New York Times reported, "the
cars cost several hundred thousand dollars each to produce," although Honda's president
Takeo Fukui "said that should drop below $100,000 in less than a decade as
production volumes increase."
But why would production volumes increase for a car that
delivers no real value to the consumer and has no significant societal benefit
to motivate government support? Answer: They wouldn't, so prices may never drop
below $100,000.
And who, exactly, is going to buy a car that can't easily
find fuel? On the other hand, who is going to build tens of thousands of
fueling stations--price tag $2 million apiece or more--until the cars are
wildly successful? That is the so-called chicken-and-egg problem, which is
especially acute for hydrogen. After all, why should oil companies spend tens
of billions of dollars building a hydrogen fueling infrastructure, which at
best will take away business from their tremendously profitable gasoline sales,
and at worst will be a complete business loss, assuming, as now seems likely, that
hydrogen cars never catch on?
And yet the media can't get enough of these hi-tech Edsels. The
New York Times, of all places, writes,
Fuel cells have an advantage
over electric cars, whose batteries take hours to recharge and use electricity,
which, in the case of the United States,
China
and many other countries, is often produced by coal-burning power plants.
Is the Times
unaware that electricity is pretty much available everywhere, whereas hydrogen
is essentially available nowhere? Is the Times
unaware that the per-mile fuel cost of an electric car is probably one-quarter
that of a hydrogen fuel-cell car? Is the Times
unaware that electric-car manufacturers are working on "exchangeable
batteries," which would make a battery swap about as fast as it takes to
refuel a car with hydrogen?
Most egregious: where, exactly, does the Times think hydrogen comes from? Santa
Claus? More than 95 percent of U.S.
hydrogen is made from natural gas, so running a car on hydrogen doesn't reduce
net carbon dioxide emissions compared with a hybrid like the Prius running on
gasoline. Okay, you say, can't hydrogen be made from carbon-free sources of
power, like wind energy or nuclear? Sure, but so can electricity for electric
cars. And this gets to the heart of why hydrogen cars would be the last car you
would ever want to buy: they are wildly inefficient compared with electric
cars.
Electric cars--and plug-in
hybrid cars--have an enormous advantage over hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in
utilizing low-carbon electricity. That is because of the inherent inefficiency
of the entire hydrogen fueling process, from generating the hydrogen with that
electricity to transporting this diffuse gas long distances, getting the
hydrogen in the car, and then running it through a fuel cell--all for the
purpose of converting the hydrogen back into electricity to drive the same
exact electric motor you'll find in an electric car.
The total power-plant-to-wheels efficiency with which a
hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle is likely to utilize low-carbon electricity is 20 to
25 percent--and the process requires purchasing several expensive pieces of
hardware, including the electrolyzer and delivery infrastructure. The total efficiency
of simply charging an onboard battery with the original low-carbon electricity,
and then discharging the battery to run the electric motor in an electric car
or plug-in, however, is 75 to 80 percent. That is, an electric car will travel
three to four times farther on a kilowatt-hour of renewable or nuclear power
than a hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle will.
No wonder the Wall Street Journal reported this in
March:
Top executives
from General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. Tuesday expressed doubts about
the viability of hydrogen fuel cells for mass-market production in the near
term and suggested their companies are now betting that electric cars will prove
to be a better way to reduce fuel consumption and cut tailpipe emissions on a
large scale.
So why do a few car companies persist in rolling out generation after
generation of overhyped Hindenburgs? Maybe it's because they keep getting so
much free positive publicity.
The Times story includes not a
single critic of hydrogen cars and reads like a Honda press release. The Times opens the story by saying that the
FCX "may have just moved the world one step closer to a future free of
petroleum." Not quite.
The story does end with some illumination: "For now, the first batch of
customers seem drawn by the car's novelty as much as anything else." The same
might be said of the media.
If you build it, the media will come, but don't hold your breath waiting for
mass-market hydrogen-car buyers. In two years, GM and Toyota have promised to deliver plug-in
hybrids. That will be a real step closer to a future free of petroleum.
Joseph Romm is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. In
the mid-1990s, he helped oversee the Energy Department's clean-energy programs.
He is the author of the book The Hype about Hydrogen.
Comments
With the status quo in the US, there is just as much chance of supporting hydrogen vehicles on a large scale, as there is of supporting plug-in vehicles. We haven't exactly been upgrading, and maintaining our current power infrastructure in the United States. Let's not forget the rolling blackouts, and brownouts in California a couple years back. We should look for that to go nationwide very soon.
China's energy needs are expected to nearly triple in the next decade or so. They are bringing 2 power plants online there every WEEK. How many power plants have we built in the US in the past decade?
I'm not discounting the idea of plug-in cars, but we need to face some very clear, very stark realities before we try and use an already overstressed, aging power infrastructure in the US.
Hantra
06/18/2008
Posts:2
U.S. and foreign car manufacturers have already proven the feasibility and reliability of electric cars. They are just a fast and much more reliable than gasoline powered engines. With a daily range approaching 100 miles per charge (per day), they met the commuting needs of 90% of our population.
Thousands of them were on the road in California at the turn of this century but special interest groups (watch the DVD) killed the idea. Their owners pleaded to keep them. Owners even offered the manufacturers top dollar to buy them (they were all on lease therefore the owners never really owned them) but the manufacturers terminated their leases. Cost of operation was equivalent to paying 60 cents per gallon for gas. Maintenance on these electric cars was next to nothing as compared to their internal combustion counterparts generating additional savings and efficiencies for the operator.
I predict U.S. auto manufacturers will miss the boat once again as they did during the previous oil embargo and Japanese (and other foreign) auto manufacturers will reap the rewards of shifting American buying patterns toward plug-in hybrids and pure electric cars.
Watch the DVD and discuss it with friends then call your congressional representatives and tell them to quit wasting your tax dollars on fuel-cell research and put our money into an already proven technology, the electric car, that already has a fuel distribution infrastructure, the power outlet in your garage. These electric cars can be charged "after-hours" when demand is at its lowest further reducing the need for additional infrastructure.
Our electric grid may need repairs and maintenance but at least it's already in place and not some pie-in-the-sky potential like most alternative energy prospects. This can be done economically NOW, not years from now and we need it NOW more than ever.
I've already emailed Toyota and Honda to let them know I will buy 3 of them. Unfortunately, I can't send the same correspondence to GM and other US manufacturers. Their corporate heads have their heads stuck up their (you know what)!
Kerryg
06/19/2008
Posts:1
http://gm-volt.com/
kstauff
06/25/2008
Posts:89
thomatt12
03/25/2009
Posts:17
Electric power as “fuel” is more efficient and less expensive than any of the other fuels normally associated with vehicles. For some drivers, power from the wall — during off-peak times — would provide most of their fuel requirements.
There are a few important factors to mention:
Point 1.
Shifting some electricity consumption to times of lower grid demand will be necessary — especially over a period of years — as more electrical power is used as vehicle fuel. The means to accomplish this is by dynamic electricity pricing — whereby electricity meters and the electricity supply system communicate continuously with each other.
At the times of day that demand for grid power increases, prices rise and your house system will automatically switch off some load — such as the charging of vehicle batteries. A significant aspect of this demand management is that the system in each home and business has customized ‘business rules’ that operate automatically.
Point 2.
Hybrid electric vehicles — and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles — have: stored electric power, a powerplant and whatever fuel the powerplant is designed to use.
An optimized internal combustion engine can serve as a powerplant — and a fuel cell may also be a valid choice as a powerplant. The fuel can be a hydrogen-rich liquid — a hydrocarbon — an alcohol. Fuel choices include butanol (C4H9OH) and even some of the hydrocarbon fuel development by LS9, Inc. of South San Francisco.
Butanol, for example, can be mixed in almost any proportion into either gasoline or diesel — and butanol can also be used as a fuel for fuel cells.
A benefit of these manufactured fuels is that recycled carbon can be used as a feedstock.
Point 3.
Some people worry about inadequate recycling of batteries. Automotive batteries have a well established and well patronized recycling system. The recycle value is high enough to ensure that most batteries are recycled. The same dynamics apply to other battery chemistries, including the various lithium chemistries.
Point 4.
Some people will be happy with just a battery electric vehicle (BEV).
These people tend to understate the limitations of BEVs, so it is worth studying the detail to decide whether a battery vehicle is adequate.
Whether a BEV has a range of 30 miles or 100 miles, there is a significant worry for BEV drivers when they check the state of charge of the batteries — and on a new route it can be very difficult to decide whether the journey can be completed without recharging somewhere. It’s true that disciplined planning and having a predictable routine can allow some drivers to be satisfied with a BEV.
For other drivers, who find they have longer distances to drive or unscheduled trips — and don’t have the opportunity to stop and charge batteries for several hours — a PHEV has practical appeal.
Winter weather reduces the range of BEVs — sometimes to half their summer range.
Vehicle heating and air conditioning, combined with headlight and windscreen wiper operation can drain a BEV’s batteries and reduce its driving range.
Hilly terrain tends to be very challenging for BEVs. BEV drivers sometimes pride themselves on actually making it over a hill — even if they are close to coming to a standstill.
PHEVs answer the limitations of BEVs in the following ways:
- The problem of reduced battery range in cold weather is solved.
- The driver and passengers can enjoy the vehicle’s climate control and be comfortable.
- Hills can be negotiated at a speed that does not impede traffic flow.
- Operation of PHEV’s on battery power — where practical — has the combined benefit of zero emissions and the fuel cost being less than half the cost of other liquid or gaseous fuels.
Point 5.
Electrochemical power has considerable advantages over combustion power.
Point 6.
A battery is an electrochemical device — and a fuel cell is an electrochemical device. Power can be stored in a battery and it can also be stored in a hydrocarbon. There appears to be greater energy density in systems that include the ability to carry and utilize a hydrocarbon. Such a system requires some battery capacity to enable instant starting and bursts of power for acceleration.
There are more similarities than differences in the ways to store energy and to produce power on demand. The benefits of hybridization appear to be essential for the majority of drivers.
Phil Jones
06/19/2008
Posts:2
Brian H
08/21/2008
Posts:28
Compare this efficiency to an electric car powered by electricity for a combined cycle gas turbine which is the most efficient way I know of to take hydrocarbon fuel and make electricity. The electric car is 80% efficient the power plant is 60% efficient and the us grid averages 7.5% efficient. The composite efficiency is 44%.
The difference in efficiency between 42 and 44% is meaningless for this type of coarse analysis. There are some places fuel cells can compete from an efficiency stance despite the technological infancy. However, if you start with solar electricity from your own roof top its tough to beat the efficiency of a plug in hybrid or electric car. Fuel cells tend to have competitive efficiency when starting with hydrocarbon fuels but have low efficiencies when electricity has already been generated. I doubt we can immediately eliminate all hydrocarbon sources so using them efficiently seems to make since for the time being. Cheap efficient renewable ways of making hydrogen are also being researched and may exist a decade from now.
Obviously efficiency is not the only issue. Total life cycle cost is also paramount. If you have the money the Tesla roadster is a very environmentally friendly transportation solution at $100,000 using lithium ion technology. Lithium ion technology is already mass produced. Not to knock Tesla technology either, I truly hope there 2nd and 3rd generation models are affordable for people not looking for a sports car that can do zero to 60 in under 4 seconds.
Transportation Fuel cell technology is expensive but it is also not produced yet in any significant volume. Aside from the high price of hydrogen and fuel cell equipment, I wonder how much of the several hundred thousand dollar price tag on the FCX is related to the cost of producing any car in low volume manufacturing. (same question applies to tesla)
Similarly is the 2 million dollar price of a hydrogen gas station a reasonable volume estimate?
Given the size of the problem of replacing the energy and transportation infrastructure with new technology I think a variety of solutions makes since. If you read Reveo's website on zinc air flow batteries they claim the retrievable lithium supply is limited and lithium ion battery cars will trade oil scarcity for lithium scarcity. They claim both hydrogen and lithium batteries make no since but they have a solution. I don't know how true the lithium limitation is but it is worth consideration and zinc air is an interesting technology to read about. Even if you can't make every car with a lithium battery maybe you could make a few hundred million and solve part of the problem. Eestor also claims to have an energy storage technology better than fuel cells and batteries that no one would have consider 5 years ago. They will be interesting to watch to see if there is truth to the claims.
The point is don't count fuel cells out yet. Yes hydrogen lacks an infrastructure and this is a highly valid criticism but 60% efficiency(3x 20% ICE) is an impressive start and most technology is costly before it is ready for wide scale adoption. Why not fund research on fuel cells, metal air, Eestor, lithium ion, etc(energy storage) and role out commercially plug-in hybrids that are economically and technologically ready. Along with plug-in hybrids high cost limited volume economical in a niche solutions like the tesla roadster also have benefit by pushing the technology envelope with the potential to be profitable. Rolling out some technologies on a small but beyond laboratory scale like the FCX that are not economic allow learning to happen in order to close the economic gap.
Ultimately having more than one solution reliant on more than one raw material or manufuturing limitation can be advantageous when the scope of trying to supply 6 billion people with sustainable transportation is considered. Fuel cells may be Platinum limited, Lithium ion might be lithium limited, oil is limited. Manufacturing bottle necks such as pressure vessel for nuclear reactors,manufacturing facilities that can handel large scale wind turbines, or processing of silicon for some solar technologies can also limit rapid deployment. There may be analogous manufacture limitations in any one transportation technology. Having more than one viable technology can actually reduce the cost of others due to distributing the demand and bypassing potential manufacturing or material limitations.
It is also necessary to fund 10 things in R&D to yield one that works. As far as I know the planned production volumes for plug-in hybrids far exceed those of fuel cells reflective of further stage of development that the technology is in. Although there is a possibility hydrogen might never be a viable transportation solution it would be as much a shame to pull the funding at this stage as to not increase battery funding.
buelts
06/20/2008
Posts:11
Asia already has fairly widespread electricity shortages,with regular power cuts prevalent across India.Plug-in electrics would thus not be a feasible alternative in the short term.Another factor is the high traffic density in most metros(30 cities with populations of 1 million or more)that leads to massive traffic jams,and consequently high pollution levels.
Therefore hybrids are the answer, and if only car companies can strategise accordingly,Governments could fall in line with appropriate incentives.This could speed up the switch to hybrids from conventional vehicles.
vijaym
06/24/2008
Posts:1
As for the efficiency of hydrogen - remember that the H has to be compressed and cooled into liquid hydrogen to store it and this requires a LOT of energy.
bkf11
06/24/2008
Posts:7
Is the development of the "swappable battery" really on pace with that of the PHEV in general? I kind of doubt it, but depending on how big these batteries are, it might be nice to have some modular "swappable" battery packs come with the vehicle. I think A123 could sell a battery system with extra modular battery packs. But then again that would cost more because the battery system alone costs as much as $10k last time I checked.
energymv
06/25/2008
Posts:19
House current, you're pegged at around 3 hours.
But then again, home refueling with split natural gas for hydrogen would take nearly the same timeframe as well.
If you have a station with enough current, and an A123/AltairNano battery, you could actually recharge an electric car 80% of the way, faster than you could refill it with hydrogen.
In this specific example, you could charge an A123 Systems battery, 100 miles range, for 60mph speed, of a midsize truck, in about 1 minute.
http://greyfalcon.net/quickcharge3.png
http://greyfalcon.net/quickcharge
http://greyfalcon.net/quickcharge2
But yeah for reliable electric recharging you have 4 options.
1. QuickCharge
2. Battery Swap-out
3. Large Battery Range
-
4. Make it mostly electric (+90%), and have a backup generator that runs on liquid fuels.
http://greyfalcon.net/plugins
http://greyfalcon.net/volt
http://greyfalcon.net/plugins6
http://greyfalcon.net/plugins7
This last one is useful because it minimizes battery size to roughly a third of the other options. And since the battery is the most expensive part of the car, that can dramatically cut costs. As well as offer up a high degree of versatility with the existing gasoline/diesel infrastructure for longer range trips.
_________
This all said, I think Romm is underestimating the Clarity, but for the right reasons.
The original versions of the Honda FCX had very little battery support, and were essentially glorified CNG burning cars. With more emissions than a Hybrid.
http://greyfalcon.net/electriccars2.png
The new growth with the Honda Clarity comes with it essentially being a fully electric car, sporting top of the line batteries, regenerative braking, and high end electric motors. Scrap out the hydrogen part, and increase the battery size, and you got yourself a pretty stellar electric-only car.
As such, the real technological advance of the Clarity over the FCX is that it's piggy-backing off of advancements in electric cars.
And since it is that way, you could just as easily have a CNG engine as a generator, instead of an indirectly Natural Gas powered Fuel Cell, and still arrive at nearly the same emissions.
greyflcn
06/27/2008
Posts:1
IronSun
07/01/2008
Posts:2
chnelson04
07/02/2008
Posts:1
The electric car instead just needs a full of solar panels roof and two set of switchable batteries, below a plug-in hybrid. End of the business story (at least for the next 20 years for each customer).
It doesn't sound good I know and they don't want to be relegated from the market. Anyway people have to be well informed so to avoid this hydrogen nonsense and guide the industry on the right path.
mvd2008
09/01/2008
Posts:1
The content is very good.
It is useful for all of us.
================================================
Bob
Used Cars
bob2008
09/10/2008
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My personal motto is: no hysteria helps, but new, sustainable products help of the German economy and the climate, "said Dr. Guido Westerwelle at the keys in Berlin
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09/15/2008
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MickeyFouse
12/02/2008
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JordynJ
03/10/2009
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Null Hypothe...
06/12/2009
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jaqes
11/04/2009
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