Bolden works with NASA engineers at Johnson Space Center, in Houston, in 1992. Credit: NASA

Those who know him think it will take the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation "no time at all" to confirm that Charles Bolden Jr., a former astronaut and retired U.S. Marine Corps major general, should be the next leader of the U.S. space agency.

"He is liked and well respected by everyone who has ever worked with him," says Jeffrey Hoffman, also a former astronaut and now a professor in the aeronautics and astronautics department at MIT. "[Bolden] will have no problem getting approved. He has considerable support and a good relationship with Congress."

Unlike the previous NASA administrator, Michael Griffin, Bolden is not an engineer. Hoffman says, when comparing the two, "Their styles are quite different, but both of them are committed to a strong space program, and just as Griffin did, Bolden will have to deal with budget problems."

While Bolden may not be an engineer, he has spent plenty of time working with them as both an astronaut and a marine pilot. And to his advantage, says Hoffman, Bolden is a diplomat. "NASA is going to have to make big decisions--what are our plans for the utilization of [the space] station? How are we going to handle human exploration beyond low earth orbit?" Hoffman says. "Policies have to be made, and Charlie gets along diplomatically with people."

The only concerns raised by Bolden's confirmation are his connections to aerospace companies, which Hoffman dismisses. "That is what people do to gain the experience to be an administrator--you work in the industry. Griffin did it too."

John Logsdon, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, in DC, agrees: "I don't think there is any obstacle to his confirmation. People, the Senate, will ask about conflict of interest, but I don't think there is a substantial issue there at all."

Since Griffin's retirement at the beginning of the year and the Obama administration took office, NASA has anxiously awaited its next leader--with good reason. The road ahead for the space agency is filled with uncertainties, mostly with the future of human space exploration. Currently, an independent committee is reviewing NASA's plan, called the Constellation Program, and the building of its next launch vehicle to send humans to the moon and Mars. The committee's recommendations are due at the end of August.

If Bolden is selected, Logsdon says that he will wait for that review before making any big decisions. "He has deep experience, is a recognized leader, is trained to make tough decisions, and is a very outgoing, people-oriented person," says Logsdon, also a chair in aerospace history at the Smithsonian Institute, in DC. "But it is a good panel, with people that can do in-depth technical analysis and have reputations for integrity."

The confirmation hearing for NASA's second in command, deputy administrator Lori Garver, will also take place today. The hearings begin at 2:10 P.M. EST.

During the first meeting of the Augustine panel, a committee charged with reviewing the future of U.S. human spaceflight, on Wednesday, members heard several private companies argue that their launch vehicles would be cheaper and more reliable than the Ares rockets currently being developed by NASA to succeed the aging space shuttles. The Ares are part of the Constellation program which outlines plans to send humans back to the moon by 2020, and then to Mars and beyond.

The committee's report isn't due until the end of August, but Norm Augustine, the committee chairman, has already said that some commercial launch efforts appear further along than he previously thought. Of the issues brought forth, Augustine said that the availability of commercial rockets as an alternative to launch Orion and the concept of reusing the space shuttle launch system, were the most interesting.

The committee heard from United Space Alliance, which says it could use an existing Delta rocket to launch the Orion crew capsule into space sooner and cheaper than the Ares I rocket, which is first scheduled to launch in 2015. The Aerospace Corporation added that it could use a modified Delta IV Heavy rocket to save between $3 billion and $6 billion. (Aviation Week has a report about a new study that suggests various advantages of using the Delta IV over the Ares I--although the report has not been released.)

SpaceX and Orbital Sciences also offered their services for taking cargo and humans to the International Space Station, not only to fill the gap between when the shuttles retire and the next launch vehicle is ready for flight, but to service the station afterwards to save money. Both companies already have a contract with NASA through the COTS program for cargo flights to the station.

Lastly, a company called Direct proposed using space shuttle parts to build a new launch vehicle, claiming that the components will already be tested, and it will be cheaper and faster to build.

While the panel did not hear from Ares program managers, I was able to speak with many of them while reporting on the Ares I-X test-flight rocket, which will launch in August. (The article will appear in the July/August print issue, and publish online June 23.) When asked about being overbudget and behind schedule, Jon Cowart, deputy project manager said, "if Congress wants to give us more money so we can accelerate the development, we would love to do it, but right now we are in a go-as-you-pay situation."

The recommendations of the Augustine panel are critical to the future of U.S. human spaceflight, and decisions on NASA's budget are on hold until the panel concludes. Despite the uncertainty, Steve Cook, NASA Ares project manager at Goddard Space Flight Center, remains enthusiastic about the future."This is an exciting time, and we have a team that is motivated to build the exploration launch system to move us beyond low earth orbit," he says. Follow and take part in panel discussions. Next topic: What role should international partners play in future U.S. spaceflight plans, and why?

Technicians complete connections between the LRO and LCROSS spacecraft and the Atlas V rocket at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, in Florida. Credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

Update 6:18 p.m. EDT: the orbiters have launched! Follow their mission progress.

At approximately 5:12 P.M. EDT today, a pair of robotic lunar "scouts" will hopefully be launched aboard an Atlas V rocket. Their mission is to map the moon's surface, search for ice, and assess levels of radiation in the environment. The flight is the first U.S. mission to the moon in more than a decade, and the first step toward returning humans by 2020.

The first of the two lunar probes is a spacecraft called the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), and it is part of NASA's Vision for Space Exploration. Richard Vondrak, a project scientist for LRO, told me during an interview last year that "LRO is the most advanced lunar satellite NASA has built. It will provide information that would have been impossible to collect a few decades ago."

LRO will carry seven instruments, including a cosmic-ray telescope, to measure the effects that lunar radiation could have on humans, and a laser altimeter, to map the surface of the moon. It will also take high-resolution images and temperature measurements.

The second lunar probe is a smaller spacecraft called the Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS), and it has a simpler mission: to crash into the surface of the moon where experts believe that ice may be present. Unlike LRO's four-day cruise to the moon, it will take LCROSS months to get there. It will ride on the Atlas V upper stage and will first observe the upper stage's smackdown before flying through the plume and crashing into the moon's surface minutes later. LRO and the Hubble Space Telescope will observe the collisions, hopefully viewing and sensing any water ice that gets thrown up.

Engineers are anxious to get the probes into space--the $583 million mission has been delayed since October 2008, and has endured more setbacks this week due to Space Shuttle launch delays. In addition, China, Japan, and India have launched lunar probes within the past three years. (China's Chang'e 1 and Japan's Kaguya both launched in 2007 and crashed into the moon this year.) Russia and Europe have more recently joined in, announcing their own lunar ambitions but not fully disclosing their plans. The race to return humans to the moon is well under way.

The probes have three chances to launch this evening, and a few opportunities on Friday. But the flight window closes on Saturday, and then it will be another two weeks before the spacecrafts get another shot at liftoff.

Atlas V launches from Florida carrying LRO and LCROSS. Credit: NASA