Beyond Change.Gov

The Obama transition team's Web presence revolves around www.Change.gov, which sets out his platform, takes job applications, and invites supporters to submit their stories from the campaign's front lines. But there's pretty strong evidence that once Obama is in office, presidential communications and overall strategy will revolve around new media. In short, the presidential-election counting is done--and the Web was an even bigger winner than we knew.

Here's the data: Obama's campaign garnered a staggering $500 million in online donations from more than three million people. Personal fundraising pages alone--those online tools that let supporters browbeat friends and acquaintances for money--hauled in $30 million from 70,000 organizers. (Not bad, considering the investment of campaign time and money: zero.)

Supporters also created 35,000 volunteer groups and organized 200,000 real-world events, such as house parties, via the Web. Then there was the get-out-the-vote effort. In the final four days, when the Obama juggernaut turned its Web firepower to rallying voters to the polls, supporters made three million phone calls to those in swing states. Did someone say "YouTube"? Well, people spent some 14 million hours watching campaign-related Obama videos during the campaign season--adding up to 50 million views. Finally, and most ominously for Obama's political or policy opponents, the incoming president is now armed with the e-mail addresses of 13 million supporters.

With the campaign having learned what kinds of results you get from social-networking sites, viral videos, e-mail lists, and text messaging, it's not hard to imagine that this administration will operate far differently than its predecessors. Sure, it's not clear what shape it will take: how much YouTube, how much social networking, how many e-mail blasts from the White House or from proxies. Getting it right will be tricky. But clearly, Obama's recent "radio address" on YouTube is a taste of things to come. I spoke yesterday with Thomas Gensemer, managing partner of Blue State Digital, the company that set up the social-networking tools for the campaign (and which supplied the numbers above). He said, "My biggest outsider claim is this: The way the campaign helped inform critical decision makers of the value of digital assets means [that these assets] will have a significant role in the ongoing administration."

McCain, Online Social Networker?

Whatever anyone thinks of Barack Obama, there's not much question that he mastered online social-networking technologies as a tool to help him eke out victory against Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. Is John McCain now catching up? In realms like Facebook, MySpace, and YouTube, Obama is still far ahead of McCain overall. But when it comes to new growth, McCain's numbers are increasing at a faster rate. Although in absolute numbers these increases are still smaller than Obama's increases, the gap is narrowing.

Here are the one-week increases as of Friday at noon, as compiled by www.techpresident.com. McCain's Facebook supporters were up 15 percent, to 323,849, compared with Obama's 5.2 percent rise, to 1,763,643. McCain's MySpace friends were up 13.3 percent, to 91,381, compared with Obama's 3.6 percent rise, to 517,454. And McCain's YouTube views were up 11 percent, to 15,890,392, against Obama's 4.8 percent rise, to 64,223,321.

Not long ago, Obama had closer to 10 times as many Facebook supporters, MySpace friends, and YouTube views as McCain. Whether McCain's recent gains will make a difference in the general election obviously remains to be seen.

Networks Discuss Web-Only Station

Over the past few months, television networks have started embracing the Web. Executives have watched as tens of thousands of users flock to YouTube, the ubiquitous video website owned by Google. A few networks went so far as to reach out to the site, opening licensing discussions for network programming.

Fortunately for us, the networks realized that they would be better served by streaming their own programming. Centralizing all of the content through Google would radically reduce the competitive environment for television online, in much the way that iTunes has dominated podcasting and music.

Of course, Google's ever-growing audience may force networks to license their content to YouTube unless they can find--or build--a competing site. And building their own site is exactly what may happen. According to this Reuters story, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that three of the major networks and News Corp. are discussing what a jointly owned and operated network site would look like.

From the Reuters article:

While a deal is still far off, the four media companies envision a jointly owned site that would be the primary Web source for videos from their television networks, the paper said in an online report on wsj.com, citing people close to the situation.

The companies aim to cash in on the fast-growing market of Web video advertising and have also discussed building a Web video player that could play clips, the Journal said.

Disney--which has taken a similar stance with its movie franchise, according to the fourth item in this MacObserver post--said that its subsidiary ABC would not participate in such a venture.

Even without Disney (which would likely be forced to play along at some point or face isolation), a jointly owned website with all network programs simply makes sense. It creates a new revenue stream for an existing product. It's an easy-use solution for consumers. The companies can also pool their security resources, which might make the videos better protected. And it allows for organic growth, as word of mouth and search optimization would make this a huge win for the networks.

Of course, the Web network isn't about the general consumer. This is all about changing demographics. A recent study found that more people are watching more video online, which means fewer people are watching traditional television. And it's not just network television that these folks are watching. YouTube has become an Internet phenomenon, with hundreds of thousands of videos. That, in turn, has caused an influx of competing websites, many of which pay people for the content the sites upload (assuming the work's copyright isn't owned by someone else).

Still, creating this site would give the networks far more leverage with Apple and Google, potentially creating a more competitive business environment. And that ultimately suits consumers.

Online Video Breaks the TV Habit

A new study out of England found that more people are turning to the Web for their television.

Online TV watchers are still a minority--9 percent of the overall audience surveyed. However, 43 percent of those who said they watched television shows on the computer also said they watched less traditional TV. Now, there is some good news for network executives. Those who don't watch video online--67 percent of the respondents--said they were unlikely to switch their viewing habits over the next twelve months.

But the worlds of television and entertainment are about youth, and that is the very demographic that is rapidly gravitating toward online viewing. From the BBC story:

Online and mobile video is far more popular among the young, with 28 percent of those aged 16-24 saying they watched more than once each week. An average of 10 percent aged 25-44 were net video regulars, with that figure falling to just 4 percent of over-45s.

Now, in and of itself, it's no surprise that younger people are using their always-on connectivity to access television on mobile devices. This shift, though, may also be influencing the types of televisions people are purchasing.

LCD television sales are currently outpacing plasma-screen sales. It's true that LCD screens hold up better during the manufacturing process, particularly for the larger models, but it's hardly startling that the computer-like look and feel of those sets are generating sales. At my house, my LCD television comes with a series of primary inputs that allows me to easily hook up my game console, stereo, laptop, and DVD player (some of which are redundant, I know).

So, if we believe that more people are watching television on their laptops and mobile devices, and if we believe that LCD televisions, with ease-of-use connectivity with computers, are soon to be the dominant product, we are faced with an interesting question: how long will it be before startup, online-only TV networks hit the mainstream?

It's easy to argue that Google's YouTube is a nonlinear version of a network, a small patchwork of user-created content. However, the folks at Break.com are looking to formalize the concept. They pay for user-created content of a different sort--content that is more coherent and expertly produced--in hopes of attracting a regular viewing audience.

So, according to this Reuters story, the answer may be that we don't have to wait long at all:

But in recent months, videos like those posted by "lonelygirl15" on YouTube have become pop culture phenomena attracting millions of watchers. Lonelygirl15 was a fictional character dreamed up by three young filmmakers who have since launched careers based on their "Webisodes."

The backers of video sites hope to one day rival television networks and attract millions of dollars in advertising. With that in mind, Web search giant Google acquired YouTube in a deal valued at $1.65 billion and completed this month.

TV, Web Video Reach Digital Mainstream

Web companies are scrambling to fill consumers' insatiable desire for video.

Just a few years ago, watching Web video meant navigating through broken links, endless buffering loops, and poorly compressed images. Not so these days. Television execs--who once scoffed at the idea of the Web competing with their programming---are increasingly turning to the digital medium to increase the reach of their shows.

At some point, it's likely they'll understand that the reason people are increasingly turning to the Web to watch their shows isn't because we want to crowd around our computers. I can tell you, watching Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip every Tuesday night on my Dell laptop isn't my favorite experience. I do it because owning a TiVo seems redundant in a world in which content should be on-demand, available when and where I want it.

These execs may come to that realization once GooTube lays the smack down on infringing materials on its website, something that appears to be just over the horizon. Once GooTube -- the market leader in unauthorized television video services -- develops a comprehensive "take-down" policy for copyrighted works, I expect to see the free models that NBC and the other networks are using fade away, while models such as iTunes' -- which charges $1.99 per episode for most shows or $39.95 for a series season pass -- become more popular.

This, of course, will not make cable providers happy. Which is why we'll likely see more integrated packaging, offering upgrades for cable service that include on-demand programming through both the television and the PC.

Let's not forget, though, that it's not just television shows that are making the leap to the Web. Mobile video is making its way online as well. When Cory Lidle's plane crashed into a New York City building on October 11, Fox News posted video shot by one of its cameramen using only his Palm Treo. And a startup out of San Francisco launched a service that allows people to upload their video to websites.

Veeker built a photo sharing service with technology it gained in August when acquiring ThumbJive that lets consumers upload still pictures or video to its Web site from any camera phone.

Of course, we all hope that Web-based video doesn't eventually require a headset such as this Japanese contraption that resembles an old-school diving helmet. Although honestly, if this was the only way that I could watch 360-degree video, particularly in a video game, I'd probably find some way to make it work for me.