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Monday, August 18, 2008

Huge Solar Power Farms

Installations planned for California step up the scale of solar, but more is needed.
By Kevin Bullis

Last week's news in the New York Times about massive new solar installations in California is both good and bad news. The good: Solar power plants are at last beginning to rival conventional plants in terms of peak power production. Two new installations will combine to produce 800 megawatts of power when the sun is overhead, the amount a small to midsize nuclear power plant produces at its peak. About two years ago, Technology Review reported on plans for solar farms of unprecedented size, but those would produce only 100 megawatts or less. The new installations increase this output by almost an order of magnitude. Clearly, solar power is on its way to becoming a significant source of electricity.

The bad news: It's still not that much electricity. The very fact that 800 megawatts of solar power is big news indicates just how far we've still got to go. For one thing, 800 megawatts of solar is not equal to 800 megawatts of nuclear or coal. That's because solar works only during the day--and even then it doesn't generate peak levels in the morning and evening. Nuclear can keep cranking at near peak output day and night. The new solar installations will produce far less electricity than a comparably sized nuclear plant.

What's more, we're still talking about megawatts of electricity. To supply anticipated energy needs, we need to be thinking not just in thousands of megawatts--that is, gigawatts--but in thousands of gigawatts, or terawatts, of power. According to one report, all of the solar panels produced so far can only generate about 12 gigawatts.

This is all just to say we've got a problem of enormous scale on our hands. There are also concerns about cost--solar is still more expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels.

But enough of the negative. The new installations are yet another sign of a rapidly expanding solar industry. This expansion will fuel itself by bringing down the cost of making solar panels. Meanwhile, technology continues to improve. That includes the development of cheaper ways to store solar power, so it can be used at night.

Comments

  • distributed generation
    I think it's misguided to talk about it being "not that much energy". 800 Megawatts? that's a HUGE amount of power, and there are a ton of virtues that solar power has that coal does not. There is no lung disease associated with solar power. there is no smog associated with solar power. there are no heath bills that our taxes spend paying for to sweep up after using solar power. the earth's climate as we know it will NOT be destroyed or seriously altered if we use solar power. nobody is going to make up false evidence in order to invade a country, just to get their solar power. there's no half-life or DNA-altering aspect to generating power from the sun. (you can get a tan of course..)  but those differences are significant - they are all really, really good - I don't see how coal and nuclear can compare in those respects. don't people add up the costs of pollution - because we do pay for it, anyway.

    secondly - why don't we focus on services rather than kilowatt hours. why switch to solar if you're going to use hot incandescent lights, inefficient refrigeration. why stay in the past if you're adopting a future technology? can you keep your house lit with solar electricity? yes. can you power an energy efficient fridge? yes. can you power a low-wattage state of thje art intel core2 duo laptop? yes. can you power an LCD flatscreen television? yes. can you run a heat pump to heat your house? yes. can you power everything you used to when you were using coal and other polluting or incredibly dangerous and toxic materials, without any price difference whatsoever? no, absolutely not. change involves difference - the energy is generated in a totally different way.

    if you are into DIY solar, might be worth checking out:

    http://www.solarnetwork.net/



    Rate this comment: 12345

    jwgorman
    08/19/2008
    Posts:15
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • solar power
    Solar guys fail to say how much material is needed to build the many gigwatt units they seek:  They should know that about 150 times  less material is needed for nuclear power plants having the same ENERGY OUTPUT as solar units have. I specified ENERGY, not just power outputs,  because power designates ONLY the RATE of making or using electricity, not electric energy, which is what counts. We pay our bills in kilowatt HOURS, not just kilowatts.

    Those who are happy about the 800 MW solar unit forget that its capacity factor will be about 23%,  provided that it is located in the sunniest part of the the US, and much less than this,if it isn't. 

    With proper equipment (non including a short circuit, but not providing extra energy) I can get a billion watts from my car battery, but it will be available for only a small fraction of a second.

    WATTS ALONE MEAN NOTHING! TO REPEAT: PER TERAWATT-YEAR OF ELECTRIC ENERGY OVER THEIR LIFETIME, SOLAR POWER PLANTS  REQUIRE 150 TIMES MORE MATERIAL THAN NUCLEAR UNITS DO, AND WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF TOXIC MATERIAL, ESPECIALLY IF THEY USE  PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS THAT, ACORDING TO MAKE, CONTAIN ARSENIC, GALLIUM, CADMIUM AND OTHER TOXIC MATERIALS.

    NUCLEAR RESIDUES SHOULD BE RECYCLED, AS FRANCE  AND OTHER COUNTRIES ARE DOING, TO SHARPLY CUT THE RADIOACTIVITY LEVELS OF THEIR RERMAINING RESIDUES, WHILE GETTING  EXTRA ELECTRIC ENERGY OUT OF THEM IN THE PROCESS.

    SOLAR UNITS ARE UNRELIABLE, REQUIRE AT LEAST 20 TIMES MORE  MAINTENANCE THAN NUKES DO PER KILOWTATT-HOUR OF ELECTRTIC ENERGY, AND NEED HUGE FACILITIES TO STORE ELECTRIC ENERGY WHEN THE SUN IS NOT SHINING -- WHICH HAPPENS EVEN IN DESERT AREAS SOMETIMES THREE TO FIVE DAYS IN A ROW. BECAUSE OF THE ENORMOUS AMOUNT  OF MATERIAL THEY NEED PER UNIT ENERGY, SOLAR PLANTS WOULD  EVEN BE DISASTROUS TO OUR ECOLOGY, IF WE STARTED TO BUILD  THEM IN THE NUMBERS NEEDED TO SATISFY OUR ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT. THIS WOULD HOLD PARTICULARLY FOR SOLAR ELECTRIC PLANTS USING PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS(PV'S).

    WE REPEAT:  DEPENDING ON THEIR MAKE, PV'S CONTAIN GALLIUM, CADMIUM, AND ARSENIC, ALL TOXIC MATERIALS. THEIR OUTPUT DETRIORATES WITH TIME, AND THIER OPERATING LIFESPAN IS ONLY 25 TO 30 YEARS, BUT THEIR TOXICITY LASTS FOREVER.

    WE WOULD HAVE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF OUTWORN PV'S PLACED IN HUNREDS OF SQUARE MILES  OF WASTE YARDS, AND THIS WOULD CREATE A FAR LARGER HAZARD THAN THE VASTLY SMALLER AMOUNTS OF WASTES FROM NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, ESPECIALLY IF THESE "WASTES" WERE FIRST RECYCLED TO REMOVE MOST OF THEIR RADIOACTIVE HAZARD. 

    GIVE ME A ONE GIGAWATT NUKE POWER UNIT, NO MATTER WHERE IT IS PLACED,  FOR FOUR SOLAR PLANTS, EACH WITH A TOP OUPTUT OF TEN GIGAWWATTS, ALL  LOCATED EVEN IN CALIFORNIA'S SUNNY DESERT.  PER KILOWATT HOUR OF ELECTRICITY, THE NUKE PLANT WILL, OVER ITS LIFETIME OF 50 YEARS, PRODUCE AT LEAST TWICE  THE ELECTRIC ENERGY OF  ALL FOUR SOLAR UNITS COMBINED.

    YOU WANT TO BREAK AMERICA,  GO SOLAR FOR ELECTRICITY.   YOU WANT TO SAVE AMRERICA, GO FOR BUILDING MORE  NUKES.  THEY NEVER KILLED A SINGLE PERSON.  THIS HOLDS  EVEN FOR THREE MILE ISLAND. AND DON'T COMPARE US NUKE PLANTS  TO THOSE THE FRIENDS OF FONDA BUILT -- THE NUKE PLANTS OF THE REDS.

    ALSO, DON'T COMPARE TMI TO CHERNOBYL. THE LATTER  HAD NO SAFEY FEATURES IN DEPTH AS OURS POSSESS.

    Mike
    Rate this comment: 12345

    moliver@ener...
    08/19/2008
    Posts:1
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
    • Re: solar power
      Stop Yelling Dude
      Rate this comment: 12345

      joelsapp
      08/19/2008
      Posts:6
      Avg Rating:
      4/5
      • Re: solar power
        I think shouting is sometimes warranted here to get the point through some of the thick heads that would rather dream about the energy future when they don't understand the practical limits of certain technologies.  I commend him for his statements, even if his wall of text seems rude to you.
        Rate this comment: 12345

        kstauff
        08/21/2008
        Posts:96
        Avg Rating:
        4/5
        • Re: solar power
          You have a good point. While higher materials use could hurt PV's expansion, it is not correct to assume nuclear power has trivial practical limits. Nuclear power has various severe practical limits:

          - Shortage and inertia in expertise (nuclear tech is very different from other technologies in society; look at wind and see the similarity with airplane aero engineers etc.)
          - not cheap and increasingly more expensive
          - mediocre EROEI and likely to fall without breakthroughs (due to depletion of higher ore grades). Contrast that with continuously improving EROEI of most renewables
          - various controversial (warranted or not) aspects ranging from serious NIMBY to waste disposal to decommisssioning to proliferation issues.
          Rate this comment: 12345

          Siphon
          09/01/2008
          Posts:145
          Avg Rating:
          3/5
    • Re: solar power
      In the end your statement that solar plants require more material than nukes may be valid, but I think it's important that the life cycle material requirements are considered rather than limiting discussion to the power plant itself.

      People often do this and ignore the fact that most energy and material costs and greenhouse gases for nuclear energy relate to the mining and milling and transportation of uranium. These inputs are significant and are expanding at an exponential rate as available uranium ore quality degrades.

      According to industry sources and international nuclear organizations, uranium availability will become a SEVERE problem within ten years. This is the main reason that uranium prices shot up tenfold out of the blue a coulpe of years ago. After secondary uranium sources (mainly stockpiles and converted weapons)are used up, realistic efforts to increase global mine capacity will allow only 80% of uranium demand to be met. This shortfall will be chronic, lasting for several decades at least. And these facts are true if no additional plants are built. Unfortunately, dozens of new LWR nukes are being built to make the situation even worse.

      So why are people interested in making this country - which already consumes a third of the world's uranium - dependent on yet another energy supply that will face supply reliability issues?

      The U.S. imports 96% of the uranium we use. We already have a major exposure to these shortages without adding more nukes. We should approach uranium the same way we see oil - as something to use less of in our efforts to become energy independent.

      If it weren't for the fact that shortages are inevitable and that ore grade quality will plummet by two orders of magnitude in short order, I'd favor nukes myself.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      MakeSense
      08/22/2008
      Posts:93
      Avg Rating:
      3/5
    • Re: solar power
      Mike, I respect your passionate response and wealth of information, however your text is somewhat biased and inconclusive. For example:

      Throughout the entire lifetime of a photovoltaic cell, its functional elements will produce exponentially larger amounts of energy than an equal quantity of Uranium with far less toxicity and obviously no radioactive harm. The numbers you wield are generated based on the life of Uranium, and are from common short-term analysis.

      If you're not considering the high risk of proliferation when accounting for tonnes of extremely volatile spent Uranium on site - instant death may not be a common outcome from radiation exposure - however genetic mutation, cancer, terminal illness, and SIDS are. If you don't believe me, go make some babies in a pool of spent rods, I'm sure everything will be fine.

      And you must account for the utter shortage of obtainable Uranium ore that exists, which is not recyclable like so many components of the solar cell AND its ever more efficient storage systems.

      Additionally, solar farms are not an ideal solution: as you may know, 30% (or more) of energy is lost through the grid transmission system, before it reaches its termination; very inefficient. Home and business systems are logical, relatively inexpensive, INDEPENDENT, and offer a substantial increase in property value.

      I'll grant you this: the entire nation will at no point ever likely rely solely on solar power -- but this agenda stands firm: when regulated "supply & demand" rockets Uranium costs to $10,000/kg, you'll wish you'd invested in renewable energy.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      NonsoundFlux
      09/08/2008
      Posts:1
      Avg Rating:
      5/5
    • Re: solar power
      A lot of this criticism of solar energy seems based on the idea that only way to do it is PV.  Solar rays can be focused to produce high temperatures that allow at least 40% conversion efficently.  The cost per sq meter (approximately 1kw of solar input) can be very low if we develop inexpensive sun-tracking reflectors. Moreover, heat at 800 C can be stored in molten salt, a very plentiful an cheap resource.  No major breakthroughs required here, just some good engineering.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      TooMany
      09/14/2008
      Posts:47
      Avg Rating:
      4/5
  • Solar Power Production when it is needed
    Kevin,

    Yes 800 MW is small in comparision to the 4-5TW needed for the United States, but we should be looking not at one method of production for our energy needs.

    The tantilizing aspect of solar is that it ramps up in max power output when we need it most. Companies like Enernoc make a fortune on having companies turn on their back up generators (much less efficient aka >CO2) than even coal power plants. In Connecticut, the power companies have portible generators in neighborhoods to make sure people have power during the summer days.

    In the future, solar will be used to help address peak demand and there will be less concern with trying to make it last at night when demand is much lower.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    joelsapp
    08/19/2008
    Posts:6
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • Small is Beautiful
    Kevin,

    The world does not need huge solar power farms.

    Readers should take an unbiased look at the Small Is Beautiful essays collection.

    The reason behind huge supply side solar power is simple: extending the useful life of the price control business model of winning rate cases to the regulator.

    Yes! Solar power is distributed but to make it beautiful, the government needs to get out of the electricity business of negotiating prices in the name of the end customers. In a sense, what is needed is an Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC) market architecture and design paradigm shift to enabled a new Energy Policy Act (EPAct). That EPAct will then allow business model innovations to emerge in an open market, under prudential regulations to protect the end customers. Unlike deregulation, EWPC keeps a controlled transportation market with a responsibility to transport.

    For more details take a look at the EWPC articles Can the Power Industry Eliminate its Price Controls to the End Customer? and Nanosolar Breakthrough and the Old Paradigm (that is bound to be beautiful among many other demand side energy resources).

    Aug 29, 2008. A comment to update this post was deleted today. The key insight is in the link to the EWPC article Let’s Avoid Many Expensive Fiascos which shows the power utilities price control business models are in a dead end and that regulators are making excessive risks that will go into customers' pockets as soon as the new investments go into infant mortality or premature obsolescence. The articles’ summary reads:

    There is no need to cite any evidence “to enable a highly competitive, pro-consumer, complete and fully functional market architecture and design paradigm shift.” What is needed is to have “the global power industry … get out of the wrong jungle to produce a EWPC based EPAct as soon as possible.”

    Three key references is the EWPC article are Warren Causey’s article Utilities Full Speed Ahead on IUE/SG: The Question is What to do First, the EWPC article Utilities and Regulators’ Value Destruction, and the EWPC article Leadership Answers What to do First.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    javs
    08/19/2008
    Posts:89
    Avg Rating:
    5/5
  • 800 MW this year doesn't mean only 800MW next year
    The key line in Kevin's post is "The new installations are yet another sign of a rapidly expanding solar industry."

    According to multiple sources, solar electricity generation is growing at a cumulative annual rate of more than 40%. That translates to more than doubling every two years. (The magic of exponential growth.)

    So, even though 800 MW seems like small potatoes compared to the multi-terawatt demand today, it only takes a relatively few doublings to get to significant values. You can reasonably expect the announcement in ten years to be about 25 gigawatts of new projects from PG&E. Don't forget that this current pair of projects only represents a small fraction of the solar projects underway around the world.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    nilsdavis
    08/20/2008
    Posts:6
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • efficiency
    We need to also be focusing on efficiency, and reducing our frivolous personal consumption levels. People just don't think about how all those extra lights and appliances add up. I have neighbors that run their air conditioning units non stop, day and night, even when it's 80 degrees or less outside, making it comfortably 70 degrees inside my house without air conditioning. People just need to think about turning off appliances they don't need. There are also natural alternatives to high energy products, for example, try an old fashioned clothes drying stand. There is a very satisfying feeling knowing that natural air currents and/or the sun is drying our clothes for free. Also, solar water heaters could/should be used to reduce a significant amount of common electrical demand, for most americans for a good portion of the year. These and other small changes can reduce your electrical needs incredibly (and save you a lot of money).

    And of course we need to make more efficient appliances to begin with.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    chadwickmeye...
    09/14/2008
    Posts:6
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • Solar vs Nuke
      I think Mike should live next to Three Mile Island, and I should live next to the new solar plant and see who sleeps better.
      I am not truly against nuclear, I just think solar is safer and will be easier to impliment.
      I am willing to pay an extra 10 cents a KWH for that.....
    Rate this comment: 12345

    DennisBuller
    10/19/2008
    Posts:40
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • Myths and Facts
    Myth: nuclear power is cheap and safe.
    Fact: nuclear power industry is heavily subsidized by the federal government, which covers the cost of waste disposal and the liability insurance in case of a catastrophic failure. If it so easy to reprocess radioactive waste why are not they doing it? If it is so safe why don't they cover this cost themselves?

    Solar and wind for the most part are not considered base load, but geothermal is... There is a molten ball of lava 40,000 kilometers around just beneath our feet.

    See Abundant Power from Universal Geothermal Energy for more on this.

    The truth is there is no "ONE" solution, but a bunch of pieces of the puzzle that will need to come together to solve our energy problems.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    jmaximus9
    11/10/2008
    Posts:83
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • nuclear power
    Go ahead.  Blow yourselves up.  The problem with people like you is that you look to tomorrow, but not to next week, or next month. As long as you put yourselves in a position where you are vunerable, you will never have total freedom. 
    Rate this comment: 12345

    sungirl
    02/16/2009
    Posts:1
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